SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
TUESDAY, 22nd October 2024 – P.M. Shift

TONIGHT & TOMORROW:
A high-pressure ridge is building from the southwest, directing a cool and dry southeasterly wind flow over Samoa. This has led to a few low-level clouds over the islands. However, the latest satellite imagery shows a developing area of clouds and rain to the northeast, which is expected to bring rain and gusty winds by tomorrow evening. Models suggest this system will result in wetter conditions. For tonight, only minimal rainfall is anticipated before the enhanced rain activity arrives by tomorrow evening.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
Wet and windy conditions are likely to persist early in the forecast period, with improvements expected by the start of next week. A strong high-pressure system settling over the area will cause winds to strengthen from tomorrow and continue through the weekend. Meanwhile, a convergence zone to the northeast is anticipated to maintain rain and gusty conditions mid-week as it moves southward. Upper-level divergence overhead by Thursday is expected to enhance convective activity. Winds may begin to weaken by Monday if the high-pressure system shifts southeastward. This pattern will be closely monitored, and warnings or advisories will be issued as needed.

MARINE OUTLOOK:
Current observations indicate wave heights are below advisory levels and expected to remain so throughout the mid-week. However, a slight increase in wave heights is anticipated from tonight through the weekend due to the intense high pressure from the South. Therefore, a marine advisory will likely to in place by tomorrow.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
None.

Weather Duty Team:
LMSA &AS