SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SUNDAY 08th FEBRUARY 2026 PM SHIFT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW:
The atmospheric sounding profile reveals lingering instability, coupled with an ever-abundant supply of moisture over the region. Recent satellite imagery confirms that the equatorward flank of the upper-level low is currently advecting moisture and cloud content, resulting in persistent cloudiness over the northernmost parts of both islands. The presence of a cold-core low over the area suggests a higher probability of enhanced vertical cloud development, likely leading to deep convection and vigorous thunderstorms. While these conditions were primarily evident during the afternoon, surface heating further triggered convective activity within the interior regions. Afternoon satellite data indicated speed convergence in the lower atmosphere. When combined with the persisting upper-level low, this creates a sustained environment for unsettled weather. Therefore, all current advisories and warnings remain in effect. Anticipate continued cloudiness with periods of scattered showers, thunderstorms, and occasional strong, gusty winds.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
The previously mentioned trough of low pressure may make landfall over the area of interest. This is likely to induce rainfall and thunderstorm activity that could persist through Wednesday. During this period, the upper-level circulation will slowly shift to the west of Samoa; this movement will enhance the surface system and increase its longevity. By Thursday, a surface ridge of high pressure is expected to extend from the east across the north of Samoa, causing the surface system to drift south-westwards. This shift will introduce moist north-easterly winds over the forecast zone, which will remain through Friday.
MARINE OUTLOOK:
Latest marine observations indicate that wave and swell heights across the country’s coastal and marine waters remain below 2.5 metres. Currently, these conditions pose no threat to maritime activities. However, an episode of northerly swells, with periods reaching up to 19 seconds, is expected to enter our northern marine waters later tomorrow. This long-period swell may generate rough seas and strong coastal currents as the new week begins.
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
VALID: HEAVY RAIN WARNING
VALID: FLOOD ADVISORY
VALID: WIND ADVISORY
Weather Duty Team:
MJS, S. Kalolo, P. Huch & A. Uili