SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 28thFEBRUARY 2026 PM SHIFT

TONIGHT & TOMORROW:

Moisture remains sufficient across the vertical profile of the atmosphere as per sounding trace in the afternoon. However, less instability and lifting hindered the rising of air parcels through the certain levels reducing the chance of thunderstorms to occur within the now-cast period. Cloudy spells due to the mid-level clouds streaming along the wind flow generated periods of showers mainly along the northern windward locations throughout the late afternoon. Moderate to fresh northeast winds were captured from Apia and Vailoa Aleipata AWS’s as predicted from the previous days particularly for the gradient and 850mb levels. The SPCZ chain remains further southwest of the group with major convective cells concentrated over TC Urmil as evident over satellite loop throughout the past 9 hours. Weather charts updated by Fiji Met Service showcase the Tropical Storm maintaining its southeastward track and intensity [Category 2]. This system is not expected to pose any threat to Samoa’s Area of Responsibility through tomorrow. Therefore, the forecast zone will be dominated by the surface ridge extending southward of our island chain. Thus, anticipate cloudy periods with brief showers and gusty winds during showers for tonight and tomorrow.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

The abovementioned surface ridge will direct easterly winds throughout the entire outlook period as the SPCZ axis fluctuates further southwest. Trade wind showers with afternoon convections will be the main rain-maker systems anticipated for the next couple of days. Even though there is a probable upper-level low circulation predicted to the north of the area in the latter days, the instability and moisture probable areas are hinted further southwest along the SPCZ chain. As for TC Urmil, the southeastward propagation will be maintained with a weakening trend within the next 24 hours as it enters the mid-latitude regions.

MARINE OUTLOOK:

The current marine observations continuously indicate that wave and swell heights remain below 2 meters, suggested no imminent threat across Samoa’s marine areas.Wave watch models suggest that these wave conditions will persist and fluctuate the advisory threshold of 2.5 metres throughout this outlook period.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
Gafa, Kalolo, Uili & Namulau’ulu.