FORECAST DISCUSSION
SATURDAY 23rd NOVEMBER 2019 (AM SHIFT)

TODAY:

A trough of low pressure analyzed West of Samoa early this morning. Meanwhile, a warm and moist Northerly wind flow continues to prevail over the group. An upper trough to the South may less vertical motion for our area due to its stable upstream. However, shallow upward vertical motion exists due to mid level divergence, This may generate brief moderate to heavy downpours for the islands later in the evening with the assistance of the surface heating. Therefore; expect to become cloudy with scattered showers, heavy at times and few thunderstorms possible.

SUNDAY TOWARDS FRIDAY:

The aforementioned trough will maintain wet and unstable weather conditions for tomorrow. By Monday the trough expected to weaken as the low to the South moves Southeastward. Another high pressure system to the southwest will enter our forecast zone by early Tuesday introducing Easterlies with stable weather conditions and so for the rest of the outlook period. Therefore expect a change in weather by mid-week with gentle to moderate Easterly winds.

A tropical Disturbance (1005hpa) located East of Solomon Islands may deepen into a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days tracking South before moving Southwest affecting Northern parts of Vanuatu with numerous showers. The movement of the system to the Southwest is due to a ridge that may build over Samoa. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT POST ANY THREAT FOR SAMOA.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

The latest data show minimal wave heights raining from 1.5-2 metres and will remain so for the rest of the outlook period.

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

HEAVY RAIN ADVISORY REMAINS

DUTY FORECASTER:

E. Toluono