FORECAST DISCUSSION

TUESDAY 11TH AUGUST 2020 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT & TOMORROW:

The high pressure system (1026hPa) centred to the Northeast of New Zealand maintains the tradewind regime across the island chain. Moderate to fresh southeast winds and tradewind showers will continue to impact the group and is more pronounced to the east and southeastern parts of the main Samoan islands. The mid-level ridge destabilized the atmosphere and is reflected on observations from sounding and Wind profiler this afternoon. Hence, anticipate moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and minimum showers for the short term forecast.

THURSDAY THROUGHSUNDAY

The aforementioned high-pressure system to the Northeast of New Zealand will continue to direct tradewind weather through Saturday with moderate to gentle wind force. The Convergence zone/frontal system will overhead the forecast zone by Sunday and Monday with some showers. At the meantime, global models forecast for rainfall is slightly diverge for this aforementioned system. However, will closely watch the arrival of the system and update the forecast accordingly.
  
MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK

Wave and swell observations this afternoon show waves ranging from 2.3-2.6meters and still in the advisory threshold for small craft. Wave models are in good agreement for these swells to subside below the advisory threshold tomorrow. Therefore, cancellation of the small craft advisory will likely for tomorrow if the observations reflect the forecast conditions.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL TO OPEN WATERS OF SAMOA.

DUTY FORECASTER:

V. Wilson