FORECAST DISCUSSION

SATURDAY 06th JUNE 2020 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:

Satellite loop shows patches of low level clouds streaming westward over Samoa. Mid-upper level clouds ia a circling shaped reveals the anticyclonic circulation at the mid-upper level just west of the forecast zone. These systems induced cloudy conditions across the area and thus brief showers. Sounding and wind profile observations show a stable and dry atmospheric profile. Global models also suggest minimum showers. However, with sufficient moisture induced by the low level flow accompanied by the upper level moisture, anticipate cloudy periods with brief showers.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:

Another intense high pressure system progressing from southwest will continue to make it way eastward within the weekend, ahead is a speed convergence that may provide some brief showers for Sunday. A southeasterly winds kick-off the start of the new week and will mark the arrival of the aforesaid high pressure system, thus bring-in stable and drier weather again with the trade wind-flow towards the Thursday. The convergence zone is predicted to move over the area by Friday into Saturday and will introduced isolated to scattered showers at the end of the outlook period.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Observations shows waves within the range of 1.5-2m which is below the advisory threshold as well as wind speed of 10-25kph. Latest model runs predicted an increase in winds by Monday evening of up to 30kph and could increase swell activities by Tuesday. Thus, will monitor these surges and advise accordingly with the latest observations.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

NONE

DUTY FORECASTER:

V.W