FORECAST DISCUSSION

SUNDAY 22ND SEPTEMBER 2019 (AM SHIFT)

TODAY:

Latest satellite imagery of this morning shows convective cloud bands associated with a convergence zone to the North is being sheared over the islands by the easterly winds aloft providing cloudy condition over the islands. The moderate tradewinds continues to maintain the aforementioned system to the North as an upper-level divergence lies to the west and north of the islands. Unsettle weather conditions is expected to persist over Samoa from tonight as the convergence zone slowly descend just North of the group in the evening. Winds will start to increase in strength later in the evening as a result of an intense high pressure system to the east of New Zealand. Therefore, expect cloudy with isolated showers with a chance of thunderstorms.

MONDAY TOWARDS SATURDAY:
Windy and wet weather condition is expected to impact the island by the start of the new week due to an active convergence zone to descend from the North. Furthermore, a compress pressure gradient hinted by models to located over the island as a result of an intense high pressure system moving from the southwest. This condition forecast to persist over the forecast area until mid-week and might ease when the high pressure system and a convergence zone move further away to the south from us. High wind is likely to be effective early hours of Monday if this significant event makes landfall.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Latest wave buoy observations continue to reveal significant wave height ranging from 1.5-2.5m on our coastal water. However, a fresh to strong southeasterly winds is highly likely to impact the island by Sunday towards the start of the new week with developing high swells of 2.5-3.5m. Therefore, severe weather information and small craft advisories will be issued if the condition warrant.

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

NONE

FORECASTER:

A.N