FORECAST DISCUSSION

SATURDAY 31stOCTOBER 2020(AM SHIFT)

TODAY AND TONIGHT:

An active cloud band with embedded thunderstorms and numerous showers lies over Samoa associated with a convergence zone. An upper divergence area concentrated East of the Islands as the upper trough moves east. However, deep Northerly winds from surface to mid-level may keep moisture within the forecast zone. Moreover, the system is predicted to slowly moves southward later in the evening. As a result; anticipate cloudy conditions with isolated to scattered showers, heavy at times with possible thunderstorms.  

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
The aforementioned convergence zone is expected to shift southward and away from the group by tomorrow due to a ridge of high pressure developing towards the group. The high pressure system centred east of New Zealand will continue to migrate eastward and will be the dominant weather feature for the next couple of days. Expect improving weather conditions at the beginning of the new week. As the week progresses, another trough is predicted to descend over the Samoan Island chain by Thursday, brining rainfall activities for the latter part of the long term forecast.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK
An intense high pressure system to the East of New Zealand continues to migrate eastward. Winds became moderate causing waves and swells to decrease but still above the advisory threshold (2 – 2.5 meters) over Southern coastal to open waters. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for today.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
FLOOD WARNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY

DUTY FORECASTERS:
E. Toluono