FORECAST DISCUSSION

MONDAY17th FEBRUARY 2020 (AM SHIFT)

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY:

TD07F remains between Funafuti and Fiji islands and approximately 1347km to the west-northwest of Apia at 11.00pm  last night . A deep low pressure system lies in the vicinity of Samoa. Strong winds and heavy rain continues to impact Tutuila since last night.   As the main Samoan islands lies within the axis of the trough, light winds continues to experience in most areas with some 54kph (29kts) recorded over highlands areas as evident on the wind profiler this morning. Satellite imageries shows the band of clouds over the forecast zone with deep convections approaching the islands from the west. Global models are struggling to point out the development and movement of TD07F and suggest wet and windy conditions to persist across the region through Thursday as the active SPCZ with embedded low pressure systems remains around the area.

THURSDAY  THROUGH  SUNDAY:

An intense high pressure system is expected to build over the island from far southwest by Friday, thus push heavy rain and windy condition to the east of the forecast zone. Easing conditions may enter the island as we head into the weekend. But will continue to monitor latest model run for any changes and act accordingly.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Wave and swells observations this evening show an increasing trend above our advisory threshold and this will continue as Tropical disturbance 07F is predicted to move near the island by tomorrow evening. Wave-watch model forecast significant wave height to reach 6m by Tuesday. Therefore, expect damaging heavy swells and rough seas for all open waters of Samoa.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES

WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAMOA

HEAVY RAIN WARNING FOR SAMOA…

FLOOD  WARNING IS NOW ENFORCED FOR ALL MAJOR RIVERS AND VULNERABLE AREAS

COASTAL FLOODING IS NOW IN EFFECT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS

DUTY FORECASTERS:

V. WILSON, A. NIKO & M. SOLOMONA