FORECAST DISCUSSION

THURSDAY 17th JANUARY 2019 (PM SHIFT)

TONIGHT:

A light North-westerly wind-flow continues to prevail over Samoa with scattered low-mid-level clouds. An upper-level convergence over the forecast zone will suppress the development of convective activities within the nowcast period, which leads to fair weather. However, sunny day supporting surface heating with warm North-westerly flow could provide some evening showers. Expect few thunderstorms to the Southern side over the shores due to single cells developing South, associated with a weak trough which link to a low pressure system analysed Southwest of the Islands while moving Westward.

FRIDAY TOWARDS WEDNESDAY:

By tomorrow a ridge of high pressure from the Northeast will push the SPCZ back to its normal position also causing a wind change from Northwest to Northeast with few showery activities. Short-wave troughs drifting along the Northeast flow may bring isolated showers by Saturday evening. Tradewind weather will dominate for the most part of the outlook and will thus decrease the amount of rainfall mainly over highlands and Southern districts. Rainfall activities will pick up again as the SPCZ again moves closer within our forecast zone towards the end of the outlook if models remains the same.

MARINE OBSERVATION & OUTLOOK:

Northeast Swells up to 3 metres that previously impacts open waters of Samoa decreased below the advisory threshold as observed in the last 12 hours. Therefore, theadvisory cancelled. Wave watch models predicted wave heights to remain within the range of 1-2 metres for the rest of the outlook period.

ADVISORIES & WARNINGS:

NONE

FORECASTER:

E.TOLUONO