SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION
THURSDAY 6th NOVEMBER 2025 PM SHIFT

TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW:
The unsettling weather conditions will persist across the islands' surface tonight. This is assured as the convergence zone continues to linger over the forecast area, bringing convective clouds and a few thunderstorms observed in the southern region of the islands, as confirmed by satellite data. This aligns with the collection of CIMMS observation illustrations, which depict the ongoing upper divergence that enhances slight vertical developments experienced in certain areas tonight. The moisture level exceeding 50 mm is also indicated by the Pago Pago sounding profile [00Z], which is associated with the existing instability. The MIMIC TPW animation clarifies the humid weather conditions noted, as these results confirm the ongoing enforcement of the Heavy Rain Advisory for all land areas of Samoa. The weakening of the aforementioned system corresponds with the dissipation of broad convective clouds later tonight, according to the latest satellite imagery, and is expected to extend into tomorrow, with northeast-to-easterly winds anticipated to prevail over the forecast zone. Consequently, isolated showers with brief heavy falls and a few thunderstorms, along with a low likelihood of gusty winds during rain, are expected tomorrow.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
From the model consensus, the convergence zone may very likely locate to the west of our area, while dragging the moisture content along the easterly wind flow on Friday. A short-wave trough of low-pressure is expected to provide periods of moderate falls along the easterly wind flow on Saturday, eventually moving westward on Sunday. Then, on Monday where a separated trough of low-pressure forms to the west of Samoa, causing the wind flow to veer northeast, and such expected weather scenario may prolong through Wednesday, with a chance of showers activities.  

MARINE OUTLOOK:
Overall, all marine observations indicate levels significantly below the Advisory threshold, and forecasts suggest that wave activities will continue to stay well beneath the advisory/warning threshold for the duration of the outlook period.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
VALID: HEAVY RAIN ADVISORY

Weather Duty Team:
Gospel. Niko, Lao Ioane Tuatipi, Samuelu Tavanā & Ne’emia Tutasi