SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION

FRIDAY 07th MARCH 2025 AM SHIFT.

REST OF TODAY:

The persistence of the aloft south westerlies tends to advect moisture over southern land areas – the latest satellite indicate the advancing of convections over the south of Savai’i. However, the existence of an upper level convergence restricts prolonged convective over the group, providing short-lived Cb cells for Samoa. For the remainder of today, anticipate fair weather periods, with cloud content accumulating over the ridges towards the afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms likely.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

Based on the current model consensus, show an elongated ridge of high pressure extending from the Cook Is towards Vanuatu until Monday. At this time frame, the SPCZ will remain to the south of Samoa while ushering northwesterly winds. Thus, this particular weather patterns will provide warm and moist equatorial flow which there is a good chance of inducing afternoon showery and thundery activities over the area of responsibility. On Sunday towards Monday in the new week, there is a probable chance for speed convergence to move over the area of forecast which increases cloud coverage and generate showery activities. In addition, the upper level southerly aloft is expected to persist which hindering convective clouds formation. Afterwards, on Tuesday the ridge of high pressure descend southward then the wind veer easterly this will introduce the trade wind regime over the main islands through Thursday. 

MARINE OUTLOOK:

Marine observations from neighbouring wave buoys together with swaths indicates wave heights restricted well below 2 metres. Prediction for the remainder of the outlook period indicating the fluctuation of prediction to remain at a 1.5 to 2 metres range.

ADVISORIES/WARNINGS:
NONE

Weather Duty Team:
MJS, A.N, S.T