MONDAY 24th APRIL 2017 PM.
Latest satellite loops shows convective activities approaching the island from east and North of the forecast zone. Moreover, a surface-mid level trough placed East and North of the group which also associated with convective activities mentioned above. A moderate East to Southeast winds affects the islands as seen on ASCAT swaths this afternoon as also observed hourly throughout the day. An upper-level trough just North of the island will be another factor to maintain an instability over the island within the now-cast period. Sounding profile depicted some moisture available near the surface and some indices indicated an unstable atmosphere. Global models predicted the aforementioned trough East to drift over the islands by tonight and thus providing showery activities within the nowcast period with light and variable winds.
Tomorrow through Friday:
Global models predicted a shallow low pressure system to develop to the East of the group by tomorrow with an associate trough extending north-westward, thus provide an unstable atmosphere with some showery activities for the island in the early stages of the outlook period. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build from southeast over the group and will push the aforementioned low pressure system and the trough South-westward by Thursday. Therefore, expect some showery activities by tomorrow thru Wednesday before drier condition enter again with our forecast zone later in the week.
Wave watch models predicted swells of 5-7 feet over the islands within the nowcast period, however high swells of 8-9 feet are located to the South and East of the islands. Will monitor the situation if these swells will impact us and will issue an advisory accordingly.